As one of the new guys at PFF, my upbringing through the fantasy world has led me to value players perhaps a bit differently than most of the crew here. I’ve always viewed things from a different perspective, and that contrarian view has helped me in both DFS and my season-long leagues.
Rankings are a difficult task that requires you to sit down and list each player in order. Tiers are an improvement, grouping players either close in projections or similarly skilled fantasy assets. What I believe could be the future of fantasy is projecting a potential range of outcomes for players. Finding a player’s ceiling and floor probabilities should help lead us down a path of what to expect in this weekly variant game we call fantasy football. My rankings take a mix of my own projections combined with some manual tweaks of where I believe each player may ultimately land as their most-likely outcome.
We unveiled our consensus rankings earlier this month, and we’re already seeing shifts due to injuries, reports out of camp, and the natural ebb and flow of the NFL offseason. Without further ado, here’s how my rankings differ from my PFF colleagues.
WR1 ceiling chasing
Terrelle Pryor, WR, WSH – My Rank: WR15 (OVR: 25); Consensus: WR20 (OVR: 37)
Michael Crabtree, WR, OAK – My Rank: WR17 (OVR: 28); Consensus: WR24 (OVR: 45)
Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – My Rank: WR21 (OVR: 34); Consensus: WR27 (OVR: 55)
While I’m not flat-out calling these wide receivers top-12 options, there’s a realistic path to them seeing the requisite volume that could elevate them to such stature.
Pryor is coming off the heels of a WR19 finish despite less-than-ideal quarterback play in Cleveland. Pryor now enters an offense void of 199 targets from last year and it’s not far-fetched to paint a picture where Pryor leads all Washington wideouts in fantasy production. Jordan Reed has yet to play 16 games in a season (and was recently put on the preseason PUP list) and Jamison Crowder’s lack of touchdown upside – five touchdowns on 29 red-zone targets over the last two years combined – leaves the 6-foot-4, 233-pound, 4.41-second 40 athletic freak as a potential top-12 fantasy wideout. Pryor enters an offense that finished top-10 in both pass attempts and passing yards last year and has a chance to rack up serious volume.
Since signing with Oakland, Crabtree has finished as the WR16 (2015) and WR12 (2016). His younger protégé, Amari Cooper, has finished the last two years as the WR21 and WR14. Crabtree has bested the former No. 4 overall draft pick each of the last two years and I don’t really feel it’s that bold to forecast him doing it a third time (I have Cooper ranked after Crabtree at WR18). While the PFF consensus has Crabtree back at WR24, I’m by far the most bullish of our group putting him at WR17 and even that feels a bit reserved. Crabtree has led Oakland in red-zone targets (34), touchdowns (17), receptions (174), and overall fantasy points over the past two years combined. I’m willing to bet he sustains those numbers for a third year.
Great find from Fantasy Guru’s Graham Barfield here:
Here's the data behind Stefon Diggs' 2016 splits when he was and was not on the #Vikings injury report: pic.twitter.com/DtsCvoNrFl
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 26, 2017
Last year, when Diggs wasn’t on the injury report, he averaged a robust 18.86 PPR points. He scored 10 points fewer when on the injury report. Diggs saw at least seven targets in every game he wasn’t on the injury report last year and that type of volume is well worth chasing. He’s a guy I’ve been actively trying to acquire all offseason in dynasty leagues, but most owners are quite bullish on his long-term outlook and I’m right there with them. Diggs showed off his blazing 4.46 speed last year where he operated mostly of the slot (62.7 percent of his routes), racking up high-percentage completions with Sam Bradford. Diggs finished as the WR14 in PPR points per game last year and carved out a role as Bradford’s security blanket where he caught 75.0 percent of his passes. Diggs is being selected far too low in my opinion considering the top end of his potential range of outcomes – WR1.
Fading New England’s pass-catching RBs
James White, RB, NE – My Rank: RB53 (OVR: 148); Consensus: RB37 (OVR: 103)
Dion Lewis, RB, NE – My Rank: Unranked; Consensus: RB62 (OVR: 182)
White was the real Super Bowl LI MVP in my opinion after catching 14 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. However, I don’t think he’ll ever come close to repeating those numbers in a game barring any kind of injury to Tom Brady. Do you know how many top-12 games White had last season? Just two. He finished as a top-24 back in four games. 42 running backs had at least four top-24 weeks last year and yet White has somehow found himself with an ADP of RB37. 92.5 percent of White’s snaps last year were on plays the Patriots passed. Unfortunately for White, New England rarely trailed in games and he subsequently saw very little volume. White is somebody that won’t find his way on my rosters this year. Neither will the oft-injured Lewis, whom I adamantly advised drafters to fade last year. Lewis finds his role (and roster spot) in question after the offseason addition of the more versatile Rex Burkhead. I don’t see any reason to roster Lewis in redraft this year.
Washington’s new bruising back
Samaje Perine, RB, WSH – My Rank: RB31 (OVR: 94); Consensus: RB45 (OVR: 131)
The man they call “Fat Rob,” Rob Kelley wasn’t on any of my fantasy teams last year and won’t be again in 2017. Instead, I’m looking to bet the Washington coaching staff falls in love with rookie Perine over the course of training camp and preseason now that we’re able to see Perine with pads on. Perine is another big back, weighing at 235 pounds, but set the NCAA single-game rushing yard record (427 yards) as a freshman. He had a tumultuous career at Oklahoma between injuries and sharing a backfield with Joe Mixon, but Perine’s best days may lie ahead of him. Washington failed to run the ball well with Kelley at the helm. Last year, the Redskins were top-six in red-zone trips per game (3.8), but their red-zone scoring percentage was third-worst in the league (45.9 percent). Perine’s strength (he led all RBs at the NFL combine with 30 bench press reps) and short-yardage abilities have been widely praised and he could become an absolute fantasy steal if given goal line work (51 career TDs). Perine could potentially solve Washington’s red-zone woes and evolve into their early-down back.
This is one of my top three battles to monitor throughout training camp, but for now, my equity in best-ball leagues is in Perine’s favor.
Fading career outliers
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – My Rank: QB10 (OVR: 113); Consensus: QB6 (OVR: 80)
Ryan is an easy fade for me after out-performing his career averages by a longshot with his historic 2016 campaign.
Matt Ryan posted the 7th-highest Touchdown Rate in NFL history last season. #RiseUp pic.twitter.com/lR81k1ESYM
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 12, 2017
He inherits a new offensive coordinator who we’ve been told will try to implement a similar offense to that of Kyle Shanahan. Ryan’s weapons will remain the same and their offensive identity is reportedly going to stay the same, so why the fade, Tyler?
Atlanta’s 2016 campaign was of historic note. The Falcons ranked fourth in both yards per play and points per play compared to all teams over the last 50 years. I’m not willing to bet on them defying history for a second season in a row. Regression to the mean doesn’t imply Ryan will have a terrible year. I’m just not comfortable drafting him at his current Fantasy Football Calculator ADP of QB4.
No ceiling on “The Alien”
Martavis Bryant, WR, PIT – My Rank: WR25 (OVR: 41); Consensus: WR32 (OVR: 63)
In Bryant’s 24 career games (including postseason), he has averaged a 4-65-0.67 stat line. Extrapolated over the course of the season, that’s a 64-1,040-10.7 stat line and what would’ve finished as the WR13 last year, just behind Crabtree. Only my future podcast partner in crime Scott Barrett has Bryant ranked as highly as I do (both at WR25) and I’ll stand firmly in my conviction there that he has a chance to crack top-24 numbers if reinstated. Remember, Bryant’s currently allowed to participate in team activities, but he has yet to finalize his reinstatement back from suspension.
Change in philosophy, lowered expectations
Jarvis Landry, WR, MIA – My Rank: WR32 (OVR: 57); Consensus: WR20 (OVR: 36)
The Miami Dolphins were a tale of two teams in 2016. Weeks 1-4 they utilized a heavy pass attack and Landry lit up the PPR world accruing 31 receptions for 377 yards and a score. However, over the course of his remaining games, Landry’s volume dipped substantially as the Dolphins opted to slow down the game and lean heavily on Jay Ajayi. From Weeks 5 to 17, Landry saw just 7.2 targets per game (11.3 to start the year) and was on pace for 210 PPR points, a pace that would’ve netted him a WR22 finish. Perhaps my ranking is a bit too low, but the target gobbling manner in which Landry accrues his fantasy points doesn’t appeal to me given his current WR18 ADP. I’d rather chase the upside of the guys listed at the beginning of this article or find later target hogs in Jamison Crowder or Willie Snead if needing a way to balance my roster with steady points from the wide receiver position.
Only Julian Edelman has a higher YPRR rate than Landry (2.42 to 2.33) last year from slot receivers, but the lack of volume is quite concerning. Add in the potential for DeVante Parker to see an increase in targets and it looks like a situation best left avoided.
Buying into the hype
Jameis Winston, QB, TB – My Rank: QB6 (OVR:86); Consensus: QB9 (OVR: 93)
I wrote about Winston’s potential as a breakout candidate earlier this offseason. Nothing has changed in Tampa Bay to make me think otherwise.
The gazelle will run your fantasy squad to the playoffs
Tyrell Williams, WR, SD – My Rank: WR41 (OVR: 77); Consensus: WR53 (OVR: 125)
I’m baffled that Williams isn’t getting any love considering he’s coming off a 1,000-yard campaign as the fantasy WR18. My ranking of WR41 will likely continue to climb as we get closer to Week 1, but Williams offers some immense upside as a wideout currently going ninth round of MyFantasyLeague’s MFL10s. Williams finished 2016 averaging 7.4 targets per game and had three top-12 weeks. Only 18 wideouts had more top-12 finishes. The offense gets back Keenan Allen, who should lead the team in most receiving statistics, but there’s enough meat on the bone (top-12 in pass play percentage last year) for Williams to carve out a relevant fantasy role. Williams isn’t a sexy pick, but with rookie Mike Williams’ back injury, Tyrell should be able to provide fill-in flex potential at a terrific draft day cost.
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